Ugoh, Christogonus Ifeanyichukwu and Echebiri, Udochukwu Victor and Temisan, Gabriel Olawale and Iwuchukwu, Johnpaul Kenechukwu and Guobadia, Emwinloghosa Kenneth (2022) On Forecasting Nigeria’s GDP: A Comparative Performance of Regression with ARIMA Errors and ARIMA Method. International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 10 (4). pp. 48-64. ISSN 2053-2229 (Print), 2053-2210 (Online)
![[thumbnail of On Forecasting Nigeria’s GDP.pdf]](https://tudr.org/style/images/fileicons/text.png)
Text
On Forecasting Nigeria’s GDP.pdf - Published Version
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
Download (813kB) | Request a copy
Abstract
This paper examines the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and regression model with ARIMA errors for forecasting Nigeria’s GDP. The data used in this study are collected from the official website of World Bank for the period 1990-2019. A response variable (GDP) and four predictor variables are used for the study. The ARIMA model is fitted only to the response variable, while regression with ARIMA errors is fitted on the data as a whole. The Akaike Information Criterion Corrected (AICc) was used to select the best model among the selected ARIMA models, while the best model for forecasting GDP is selected using measures of forecast accuracy. The result showed that regression with ARIMA(2,0,1) errors is the best model for forecasting Nigeria’s GDP.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Depositing User: | Professor Mark T. Owen |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Sep 2022 12:11 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Sep 2022 12:11 |
| URI: | https://tudr.org/id/eprint/958 |
Actions (login required)
- View Item
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)